Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $72,840$ on 2020-11-11

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $893$ on 2020-11-11

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $15,513$ on 2020-11-11

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $243,472$ on 2020-11-11

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,113$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,042.8}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 39.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,042.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $110,359$ on 2020-11-11

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,028,424$ on 2020-11-11

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $42,953$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,651.4}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 48.0)}}\) (asimptote \(35,651.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $613,358$ on 2020-11-11

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,400,227$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,352,961.9}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 173.0)}}\) (asimptote \(11,352,961.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $241,798$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{233,324.2}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 103.0)}}\) (asimptote \(233,324.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,161,254$ on 2020-11-11

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,260,198$ on 2020-11-11

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $50,457$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,117.0}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 47.0)}}\) (asimptote \(42,117.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,206,723$ on 2020-11-11

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $166,707$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{121,197.6}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 130.9)}}\) (asimptote \(121,197.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,082$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,824.9}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 52.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,824.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $160,625$ on 2020-11-11

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $738,094$ on 2020-11-11

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $11,994$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,389.4}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 39.5)}}\) (asimptote \(9,389.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $265,596$ on 2020-11-11

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Senegal recovered 99%
Thailand recovered 93%
Chile recovered 89%
Israel recovered 89%
Saudi Arabia recovered 88%
Burkina Faso recovered 85%
South Africa recovered 79%
Trinidad and Tobago recovered 79%
El Salvador recovered 75%
Bahrain recovered 71%
Tajikistan recovered 70%
Bolivia recovered 70%
Venezuela recovered 66%
Iceland recovered 57%
India recovered 52%
Mozambique recovered 44%
Andorra recovered 23%
Ethiopia recovered 19%
Sri Lanka recovered 19%
Slovenia recovered 12%
Argentina recovered 10%
Moldova recovered 10%
Paraguay recovered 5%
Jamaica recovered 4%

Senegal⮸

Population $16,743,927$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $15,735$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,020.3}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 119.1)}}\) (asimptote \(16,020.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $326$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{325.7}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 105.1)}}\) (asimptote \(325.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $23$ on 2020-11-11

Thailand⮸

Population $69,799,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,852$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,355.9}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 22.6)}}\) (asimptote \(3,355.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $60$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{58.0}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 11.4)}}\) (asimptote \(58.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $99$ on 2020-11-11

Chile⮸

Population $19,116,201$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $524,804$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{480,790.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 113.6)}}\) (asimptote \(480,790.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $14,633$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,492.3}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 112.5)}}\) (asimptote \(13,492.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,745$ on 2020-11-11

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $321,326$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{421,015.8}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 207.8)}}\) (asimptote \(421,015.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,700$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,469.5}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 313.2)}}\) (asimptote \(14,469.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,021$ on 2020-11-11